The future of the Scottish Tories at Holyrood after the 2026 election looks uncertain, according to expert Phil Burton-Cartledge. He believes that unless party leader Russell Findlay can bring some charisma and presence to distance himself from the UK party, the Scottish Tories may slip into third place. With right-wing leadership emerging in the UK and the rise of Reform UK, maintaining second place in Holyrood may be challenging.
Burton-Cartledge emphasizes the importance of Findlay finding his own political identity to secure the Tories’ position as the main opposition in Edinburgh. The current dissatisfaction among Tory MSPs with the choices for UK Tory leadership candidates, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, adds to the complexity of the situation.
The expert points out that the appeal of Boris Johnson to voters in 2019 may be hard to replicate by the current Tory leadership candidates. Without a strong personality to carry the party forward, Findlay must find a way to differentiate the Scottish Tories from the London leadership to remain competitive.
The exit of centrist candidates from the Tory leadership contest leaves the party with two right-wing contenders. This shift towards a more right-wing ideology could potentially alienate voters and contribute to the party’s decline in the upcoming election.
Despite efforts to maintain a center-right stance in the face of competition from Reform UK, the Scottish Tories face challenges in retaining their position in Holyrood. The threat posed by Reform UK, coupled with internal party dynamics and the changing political landscape, could result in the Scottish Tories slipping into third place.
Burton-Cartledge warns that the party’s hopes of avoiding a decline may be unrealistic, given the growing support for Reform UK and the shifting political preferences of voters in Scotland. The performance of other parties in recent elections indicates that the Scottish Tories may lose seats to competitors, making it crucial for Findlay to strategize effectively to secure the party’s future in Holyrood.